Turkey economic overview

This week, the first of the new ultra high-speed trains came into service on the Ankara-Konya line, one of many that will connect conservative heartlands in central Turkey with the Western hubs of Istanbul and Izmir. When the Justice and Development Party, known by its Turkish initials, AKPcame to power inthe focus was on closer ties politically and economically with Europe.

Turkey economic overview

The IMF currently forecasts global growth for at 3. Business profits are surging. USA housing prices appear to finally be back to levels.

Unemployment has fallen from 10 percent in to Turkey economic overview. This recovery is close to the longest in US history. At some stage it must end. However, recently passed tax cuts should encourage business investment and consumer spending, pushing the downturn beyond By then the US administration will be returning to election mode and eager to inject money to avert any potential downturn.

China is pushing ahead with major infrastructure investments along the route of the old Silk Road. It is a massive construction and engineering feat with highways, high-speed rail, logistics and technology. Its impact on construction is equivalent to another Chinese economy at the start of its rapid expansion.

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The EU economy grew at 2. The Spanish unemployment rate has declined from 23 percent in to 16 percent at the end of These figures illustrate European growth is only now starting to get into its stride.

Since the Brexit vote, the economy may have fared better than many commentators suggested, but the uncertainty generated is having a dampening effect on businesses and consumers, not helped by a fall in sterling leading to higher inflation and an erosion in real earnings.

Exports are up, helped by a fall in sterling and manufacturing appears to be buoyant. The banking system is stable and access to credit remains favourable. Despite posting growth for the year, construction output has stuttered in recent quarters, with negative growth seen in Q2 and Q4 of However, slower growth is not the only issue for construction.

Skilled labour is a worry. A heavy reliance on EU workers is a cause for concern as the Brexit negotiations progress.

There is little slack in the labour market. Unemployment is close to historical lows and construction unemployment is even tighter.

Worldwide corporate profits are generally higher. Most key indicators appear positive. Generally, interest rates remain low and expansionary. While the need for monetary stimulus has receded and thoughts are turning to normalising interest rates, the mood is to proceed cautiously.

Turkey economic overview

Meanwhile, wage growth is low, reducing risks of a breakout in wage-push inflation. And inflation generally remains low. Oil prices are recovering, raising optimism in the oil and gas sector. Higher global growth is set to redress the oil supply demand balance quicker and prompt new investments in oil and gas.

There seem to be few obvious roadblocks on the horizon to derail higher growth inexcept for a potential dent in global trade, caused by the USA reassessing its terms of trade with the rest of the world.

It is difficult to gauge the impact. It may prove to be more posturing than actual policy. This caveat aside, we believe there is a high probability that growth will continue to surprise. The residential apartment construction cycle that provided a big boost to many economies during and is shifting focus.

Nevertheless, high house prices in many regions is generating a strong wealth effect, stimulating consumption and driving growth. With job creation and productivity in mind, governments are boosting infrastructure spending.

Meanwhile, the diffusion of disruptive new technologies into every corner of the global economy is continuing to fuel growth of global businesses, such as Airbnb, Amazon, Google and Uber.

This is driving construction activity as demand for building grows.

Turkey economic overview

There is strong growth in and potentially stronger in demand for data centres. These rapidly growing corporates urgently require new operational centres.Turkey Regular Economic Note is a brief that assesses recent economic developments in Turkey and provides World Bank forecasts on key macroeconomic variables.

Overview of the economic survey of Turkey. Download the presentation. Growth remains buoyant in Turkey but fundamentals need to be strengthened, Blog. Improving the quality of business investment in Turkey, Blog.

Turkish GDP per capita has continued to catch up with the more advanced OECD . Global economic conditions and tighter fiscal policy caused GDP to contract in , but Turkey's well-regulated financial markets and banking system helped the country weather the global financial crisis, and GDP growth rebounded to around 9% in and , as exports and investment recovered following the crisis.

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